Monsoon Deficit Declines Raises Hopes of Strong Harvest (26-Jul-2010)
India’s monsoon is showing steady signs of recovery after the weak phase in the middle of this month, increasing the chances of having strong harvests. The monsoon, which was 17% short of normal on July 21 has considerably declined to 9% since June1.
The central region of India which extensively cultivates soybeans has received heavy showers reducing the deficit of rainfall to 6% on July 25 as compared to the 18% on July 19, 2010. The metrological department’s forecast for this week suggests that widespread rainfall is expected along the western coast and the central regions of India. This brings some respite to the soya bean growers as the crop requires better monsoons for healthy growth.
On the other hand the sowing of rice, oilseeds, cane and cotton seeds can be seen in a larger area than last year on the back of better year-on-year monsoon prospects and the farmers will be closely tracking the monsoon progress from now on in order to further expand their cultivation. Lackluster rains in the 2009 monsoon season had led to abysmal agriculture output last year but the monsoons for 2010 has given a promising start and is expected to be close to normal by the season end. The farm output for this year is likely to have an upward positive bias due to the increase in rainfall which will boost the underground water table levels.
The Finance Minister of India, Pranab Mukherjee had pointed out that the food inflation which was as high as 20% in December 2009 has now come down to around 12% and the arrival of new crops is expected to have a moderating impact on the prices of agricultural produce. This will help in controlling the rising inflation which has been triggered by series of events.
Prime Minister of India, Manmohan Singh too has expressed his optimism that good crops during the kharif season can see the overall inflation come down to as low as 6% by December 2010.
The IMD expects that fairly widespread rainfall would occur over northeast India, west coast and parts of northwest India in the next five days. It also expects much better second half of monsoon as compared to the first two months performance.
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