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NCAER retains India's GDP growth forecast at 7.4% for FY19

Citing comfortable agricultural sector outlook and a marked improvement in the external sector, economic policy think-tank, National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER) has retained India's gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast at 7.4% for the current fiscal (FY19). As per the NCAER report, the real agriculture Gross Value Added (GVA) is envisaged to grow at 4.6%, real industry GVA at 5.1%, and real services GVA at 8.5% in 2018-19.

Both the NCAER annual and quarterly models forecast that GVA will grow at 7% per annum in 2018-19 on a year-on-year (Y-o-Y) basis. NCAER's latest Quarterly Review of the Economy said the annual model forecasts that GDP at market prices will grow at 7.4% for 2018-19 on a Y-o-Y basis, same as May 2018. Besides, the growth rates in exports and imports, in dollar terms, are estimated at 11.9% and 15.1% respectively. The current account balance and central fiscal deficit, as percentages of GDP, are projected at 2% and 3.3% respectively.

The economic policy think tank said the trends for both rainfall and prices indicate comfortable agricultural sector outlook for the year as a whole. It noted that there was also a marked improvement in the external sector in 2018-19 and said that the financial year 2017-18 witnessed a rise of 9.9%  and 18.6%, respectively, in exports and imports, on a Y-o-Y basis. It added that the upswing continued even in FY19, wherein the total exports grew at the rate of 18% and total imports surged at 15.1% on a Y-o-Y basis during the period April-May.

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