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16-Apr2019

India likely to receive 'near normal' monsoon in 2019: IMD

Easing concerns over farm and economic growth in the country, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) in Long Range Forecast for 2019 southwest monsoon rainfall stated that the country is likely to have 'near normal' monsoon this year with a well distributed rainfall which could be beneficial for the agriculture sector.

Secretary Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) M Rajeevan has said that the seasonal rainfall is likely to be 96 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of plus or minus 5 per cent. He said weak El Nino conditions are likely to prevail during the monsoon season with reduced intensity. He added that there could some effect of the El Nino in June, but monsoon may pick up pace from July. IMD Director General K J Ramesh said overall, the country is expected to have well distributed rainfall scenario during the monsoon season which will be beneficial to farmers in the country during the ensuing kharif season. Several parts of the country are witnessing agricultural distress.

The LPA of the season rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1951-2000 is 89 centimetres. Significantly, the IMD has introduced a category of 'near normal' for rainfall between 96-104 per cent of the LPA this year. In its forecast last year, the rainfall between 96-104 per cent of the LPA was classified as 'normal' category. Rainfall of 90 to 96 per cent of the LPA is below normal. 96 per cent rainfall borders on below normal and normal category.


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